How can Pakistan qualify for the Super8?

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clip_image002The 8th team that will qualify for the Super8 will be either Pakistan or Netherlands. In case, Netherlands wins the match against Pakistan or the match ends in a Tie or No Result, Netherlands will qualify for the Super8.

However, in case Pakistan wins the match, there will be a three way tie between England, Pakistan and Netherlands. In such a situation, Netherlands can not improvise on its current net run rate of +0.05. Thus, England in a way would have already qualified for the Supr8.

The decision on which team out of Pakistan and Netherlands qualifies for the Super8 will depend on the net run rate of both the teams after the match.

Group B standings:

Have a look at the Group B standings for more clarity:

Group B

P

W

L

T

NR

PTS

NRR

B2 – England 2 1 1 0 0 2 +1.175
Netherlands 1 1 0 0 0 2 +0.050
B1 – Pakistan 1 0 1 0 0 0 -2.400

Net Run Rate

A team’s net run rate is calculated by deducting from the average runs per over scored by that team, the average runs per over scored against that team during the group matches.

If a team gets all out in less than its full quota of overs, the full quota of overs to which the batting team would have been entitled are used for calculating of the net run rate of both the teams and not the number of overs in which the team was dismissed.

Permutations for Pakistan

Now, let us try to see how Pakistan can beat Netherlands such that it ends up with a better net run rate than Netherlands, so as to qualify for the Super8.

Scenario 1: Pakistan bats first

Suppose Pakistan makes 180 runs in the allotted 20 overs. In that case, Pakistan should restrict Netherlands by 155. In short, what ever Pakistan scores, the margin of victory shall be more than 24 runs.

Scenario 2: Pakistan bowls first

Suppose Netherlands makes 180 runs in the allotted 20 overs. Pakistan would now need to make 181 runs in less than 17.2 overs.

In case Netherlands makes 150 runs in the allotted 20 overs. Pakistan would now need to make 151 runs in less than 17.0 overs.

Quick calculation:

If Y is the number of runs made by Netherlands in the first innings then Pakistan should make Y+1 runs in less than (2540 + 20Y) / (174+Y) overs

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